Hormuz Shipping Slumps After U.S.-Iran Strikes

The number of tankers traversing the Strait of Hormuz has dropped below the ten-day average, according to ship-trackers, with Kpler reporting only four tanker crossings for Tuesday. That figure sits well below the ten-day average of 13 tankers, Reuters reported earlier today. Windward, meanwhile, recorded four tankers entering the strait, two of them in dark mode, and three exiting on Tuesday, one of them in dark mode.

Crude Flows Remain High Despite Spikes

Earlier this week, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said a total of 17 million barrels of crude had passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday alone. “When you factor in bypass volumes, it suggests Persian Gulf oil flows are above pre-war levels,” ING commodity analysts said in a note. “But these numbers are uncertain. Ship trackers have been estimating much more modest flows.” They added that “It makes more sense to look at average flows over longer periods, rather than a single day, given flows move lots day to day.”

The latest tanker traffic numbers come on the heels of reports about Iran striking two tankers in Hormuz, in response to U.S. attacks launched over the weekend, which pushed oil prices higher, with Brent crude topping $96 per barrel earlier today and West Texas Intermediate trading at over $90 per barrel.

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Rising Tensions in the Strait

“I like our position now much better, with almost total control of the Hormuz Strait, and their economy totally collapsing,” President Trump said, as quoted by Reuters. “They are just playing out the inevitable. When are the Iranian people going to rise up and fight?”

Iran’s response was in the same vein, with the country’s joint military command issuing a statement saying “We warn that the continuation of American evil in the region will be met with heavier, more widespread, and devastating responses, and any country that cooperates with the aggressive American army must accept its dangerous consequences.”

While daily tracking data shows a dip, the broader pattern of movement suggests that the physical flow of oil remains robust. Analysts note that relying on a single day’s data can be misleading, especially when geopolitical activity is high. The volatility creates a challenging environment for shippers and traders who must handle both physical constraints and the rapid shifts in market sentiment. The focus now shifts to how long the reduced visibility will persist and whether any long-term disruption to the corridor is likely.